India,CAR and Afghanistan

Security Dynamics in Central Asia & Implications

Ø  Central Asia region cannot be but a subset of Asian regional balance of power and security Dynamics.

Ø  Emerging trends indicate the consolidation of democratic for under the overall public of convergence of democracies exemplified by quadrilateral (India, US, Japan & Aust.) whose mainstay being security of sea lanes of communication.

Ø  Second is the geostrategic consolidation of Asian land mass encouraged by strategic cooperation between Russia and china and unleashing of political and economic forces attempting to gain influence through bilateral and regional mechanisms in central Asia and its periphery.

Ø  Third is Perspective of American’ Greater Central Asian’ policy aimed at taking an inclusive view of the region. Objective of the policy is to shift focus from purely security, democracy & development.

Ø  Another perspective of US- policy is linking the South with CAR in the form of reverse osmosis to the traditional invasion routes from central to south Asia.

Ø  For the US access to AF via CAR become crucial after 9/11.

Ø  Both US India have Important Interests in CAR because of its Strategic location and its oil, gas and hydroelectric potential.

Ø  The US already has an airbase near the Kyrgyzstan capital of Bishkek in the North and plans to set up a military training centre in the south of Kyrgyzstan and an anti-narcotics training facility in Tajikistan.”These bases will have nothing to do with the fight against terrorism, but will serve as bridgeheads for the US geopolitical and geo-economics designs against Russia, China and Iran

Ø  SCO may have bear the brunt of resolving many problems that Afghanistan will face after withdrawal of the international coalition forces in 2014.   

India’s Interest In Central Asia (CAR)

India considers central Asia as its extended neighborhood and attaches high importance for its geopolitical and geo- economic Interests. More Specifically,

(I)      Central Asia‘s location next to at makes it important in the India-Pakistan Context.

(II)          India needs central Asian energy resources.

(III)  Increased trade and economic engagement between south and CAR is central in pursuing peace process through composite dialogue between India and Pakistan. Pak’s Export to CAR are only $ 10-15 million every year, and by denying India, overland route in the process, it has lost billions of transit revenues. In Co-operation with each other, they can become significant players improve their bilateral relation.

(IV)         In the emerging equations in central Asia, India has been exploring the strategic space between the US, the EU and NATO on the one side, and Russia and china on the other.

(V)             India also has a three fold security interest in CAR.

(a)To prevent creation of pan –Islamic ring covering the region from Kashmir to kashghar.

(b) To forestall encirclement by either China or USA.

(c) To insulate India from Narco terrorism that now plagues its northern borders; this security dimension has driven billions dollars Indian investments in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and very recently strategic Co-operation with Kazakhstan in 2009.

(VI)   CAR provides market for India’s emerging export industries, promises overland routes to rich resources of Russia and Middle East.

To Encourage the development of stable regimes In CAR, lest weakened, unstable states with centrifugal tendencies become bases for terrorists, separatist and fundamentalist elements which could link up with counterparts in Af and Pak.

To be watchful of the possible import of doesn’t In CAR on the Xinjiang region of china that would have a direct bearing on India’s Security Interests. 

INDO-CHINA

Importance of India Ocean is for China

1)             To adjoin Gwadar to Hambantota and then Sittwe, for the purpose of securing its trade & also creating psychological for to India.

2)              To reach to north of India through road, river, rail especially to Tibet and Myanmar to secure political Boundary against colonial boundaries made & accepted by India;

3)      Beijing’s increasing leverage over African countries needs to be bolstered through IO.

4)     To reduce the domination of US already present in 1980 specially may create trouble in Chinese interest in S-E Asia. In connection to this china has adopted String of pearl policy which extended policy of 1965 known as enrichment of India, especially focusing on following important parameters:-

Ø To increase diplomatic relation:-  

This is to assure shipping like surface move of Chinese trade by making countries’ coordination with its pearls.

Modernizing military force:-

In order to meet political aspiration china his modernized its military since 1965 on the excuse of peaceful rise of china while basically it is to deal effectively with problems emerging and to be ready for any actions if required.

Ø Access to force and air – field:-

Because of these several ports have been financed & subsequently may be having Chinese military establishment making psychological, political & military pressure upon India.

Ø Energy security:-

For this purpose this policy make china more secure through the ocean as the piracy, unwanted intervention, naval blockade will not be affecting Chinese link of energy supply.

Ø Chinese with of energy supply:-

China basically having this policy for development of her own yet it is causing geo political importance & forcing other countries to take action to counter future implication.

The policy having the aim to different other nations also yet the primary focus is to control India because making India’s development hampered or prohibited, China can have credible momentum until 1990. India’s efforts are negligent in countering this policy because of internal difference of India, political destabilization of India on world diplomacy and Indo-pak hostile relation.

India Vs China: -    (Manufacturing prospects)

1.  China a traditionally export led nation now preoccupied with spurring consumption at home. Chinese wages rose nearly 12% annually during 2000-09, and trend continues.

2.     India compared to its neighbor is already buoyed by domestic demand has an abundance of young cheap labor English speaking work store and engineering talent.

3.  Reform of archaic land acquisition rules, new market oriented policy, liberalized regulatory framework for conduct of business is required in INDIA.

4.     NMP can scarcely push manufacturing w/o labor reform, which shouldn’t be limited to envisaged mega national investment and Manufacturing zones (NIMZ)

5.     Yawning gap exists between the organized sectors vis-à-vis Manufacturing  jobs and o/p. the latter sectors provides 90% employments but accounts for less than one-third of manufacturing production.  

Indo - China Economic Relations: A Comparison

Trudging a Unique growth trajectory, India Instead of Adopting the classic Asian strategy of exporting labor- Intensive, Low Priced Manufactured goods to the west, it relied more on its domestic market rather than exports, Consumption over investment, services over industry and high- tech over low skilled manufacturing.

India: China Economic Growth: A Background

China’s Success is largely based on exports by state enterprises or foreign companies. Only 10% of credit goes to the private sector these, even though it employees 40% of the Chinese workforce.

In India, enterprises driven growth is at the centre. More than 100 Indian Companies have Market capitalization over a billion dollars. A Second peculiarity in India’s development has been the absence of a labor- Intensive Industrial revolution that could transform the lives of tens of millions of Indians trapped in rural poverty.

Many Indians were awestruck by the way china created an endless flow of low- end manufacturing jobs by exporting goods such as toys, pencils, milk products to the rest of the world. They were scared that India would skip a Industrial revolution altogether, jumping straight from an agricultural to a service economy.

In Chin, fast capital inflow {both from global bodies and overseas Chinese}, and used it huge reservoir of domestic savings to build one of the best infrastructure of the world.

India has serious drawbacks as for as its investment in infrastructure is concerned. It’s 24 percent domestic saving is only a little more than half that of china.

Relative to income, our failure in building roads, sanitation Schooling and electricity is woeful. Electric power is less reliable and more expensive in India than in competitor nations. Checkpoints beep trucks waiting for hours. The “license raj” may be gone but an “Inspector raj is alive & ticking.

The Chinese Success story: what’s wrong?

(1)  Its huge water crisis brewing underneath its flashy fountains and sky- Rocketing high risers. More than 2/3 of Beijing’s water supply now comes from ground water, extracted some 1000 meters or more. The genesis of china’s water crisis begins on the roof of the world, where the country’s there renowned rivers (The yellow, the Yangtze and the Mekong) Originate. In Qinghai- Tibbet plateau known as “China’s water towel” –Supply newly 50% of yellow river’s volume. Average temperature in this region increasing and more than 3000 of 4,077 labors has dried up in Qinghai province.

(2)  China has the highest number of annual deaths triggered by air pollution the urban Chinese e each more than three times as Chinese as those in rural area.

(3)  China’s deteriorating human rights record and its huge income gap the rural and urban workers. In a recent assessment of press freedom by reporters without borders, China ranked 163 out of 169 Nations.

(4)  A recent survey noted that china’s existing workforce will shrink after 2015. The country should be able to fill jobs by construing to top under employed rural laborers. But by the close of 2050, Close to a third of China’s citizen will be over 60- 3 times the current proportion.

(5)  It will soon be spending more on its military that all the nations of European Union combined. Chinese officials speak of extending their strategic frontiers progressively out ward to what they call the three “Island Chains” the first running from Japan to Taiwan to Philippines; the second, from Sakhalin to the island of southwest pacific; the third from Aleutian Islands off Alaska to Antarctica.

India-Xinjiang relations

    Uyghur, who are majority nationality in Xinjiang ,have been demanding a separate homeland of ‘East Turkestan’ out of people’s republic of china with Xinjiang ,prospering by leaps and bounds under the great western development programme,a new and dynamic region in their neighborhood would be available to Indian entrepreneurs for their trade and business activities. Both the sides has made proposals for India-Xinjiang land-link, air route (Delhi-Kashgar via Urumqi), laying a natural gas pipeline from Xinxiang to India through Ladakh and bilateral cooperation in four fields-Agriculture and food processing, traditional medicine and herbs, energy and tourism.

    India’s concern for growth of religious extremism and terrorism in Xinxiang was much more when several news reports on Uyghur terrorists of east Turkestan Islamic Movement(ETIM) being by Taliban by Al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghan.

     With the emergence of five independent republics of central Asia, Xinxiang became an important region. Both central Asian and Xinxiang regions have been historically and culturally important for India. India now perceives Xinxiang as a potential land bridge to central Asia from where it aims at getting energy resources in future .Thorny issue of Aksai chin, Which continues to haunt the relationship between the regions even today.Aksai chin was ceded to British India through a treaty by Tibbet in the early 1900’s .But since china does not recognize Tibet’s independence from China at that point of time, it does not recognize the treaty. This region, controlled by Pak illegally, was gifted to China on 3 March, 1963, immediately after the Sino-India-War, and it now forms part of Hotan country of Xinjiang. China had put forward the”East-Wast Swap” proposal.